CREA says home sales jumped 5.5% in May, but that "comeback" deserves a closer look. The seasonally adjusted bounce was real, yet actual sales were still 5.1% below last May, itself one of the weakest years in two decades. We break down why a strong monthly percentage can hide a market sitting near a 20-year low.

The real story underneath: Canada has split into two housing markets. Ontario and B.C. remain below their January 2022 peaks (down 16.1% and 9.1%), while New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Saskatchewan and much of the country sit near record highs. One national press release, two completely different realities.

We dig into why supply is tightening faster than prices are recovering, the gap between more buyers and more qualified buyers, and what would confirm a durable turn, plus a practical playbook for buyers, sellers, and agents.

The question we leave you with: Are Ontario and B.C. showing the rest of Canada where prices are headed, or is the rest of Canada showing them what recovery looks like?

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