Episodes

  • How Jobless Claims Signal a Cooling Labor Market in 2026

    How Jobless Claims Signal a Cooling Labor Market in 2026
    Jun 29 2026
    With initial jobless claims dropping to 215,000 in late June 2026, Lucas and Luna analyze what this key weekly indicator really says about the health of the labor market. They contrast the low claims with rising unemployment insurance rolls and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, exploring the concept of 'labor market rotation' where workers are still finding jobs but with longer gaps between them. The episode also looks at how jobless claims data compares to other indicators like JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls, and why the Fed watches these numbers closely for signs of a slowdown. Perfect for listeners who want to go beyond the headlines and understand one of the most real-time economic data points available. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #Unemployment #InitialClaims #ContinuingClaims #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #DataDriven #LaborRotation #MacroData #JobMarket #WeeklyClaims #NonfarmPayrolls #JOLTS #2026Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    7 mins
  • Why the Bond Market Is Pricing Lower Inflation Than CPI Shows

    Why the Bond Market Is Pricing Lower Inflation Than CPI Shows
    Jun 28 2026
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: the latest CPI print shows headline inflation at 334.0, up 0.5 percent month over month, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.20 percent. They explore what bond investors see that the CPI basket might be missing — from shelter cost lags to the disinflationary weight of global shipping disruptions. Using the Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE gauge, which hit 3.4 percent in May, they explain why markets are pricing a different inflation path than consumer surveys suggest. The hosts also touch on the fragile shipping rebound in the Strait of Hormuz and how one-off geopolitical events can distort near-term price data. A sharp, data-rich look at the gap between realized inflation and market expectations in mid-2026. #Inflation #CPI #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #CorePCE #FederalReserve #ShelterCosts #ShippingDisruption #StraitOfHormuz #TIPS #RealRates #EconomicIndicators #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #MarketExpectations #Disinflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    7 mins
  • Core Inflation Hits 3.4 Percent What the Fed Sees

    Core Inflation Hits 3.4 Percent What the Fed Sees
    Jun 28 2026
    The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, hit 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into why this number matters more than CPI, how it contradicts other inflation signals like the 10-year breakeven rate (now at 2.20%), and what it means for the interest rate outlook. They discuss the components driving the rise — particularly services inflation — and whether the bond market's calm is justified or a warning sign. No hot takes, just a careful read of the data with specific numbers from the June 28, 2026 release. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicData #PCEPriceIndex #BreakevenInflationRate #BondMarket #ServicesInflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #GDP #CPI #PMI #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    9 mins
  • Why the PCE and CPI Gap Is Widening Again in 2026

    Why the PCE and CPI Gap Is Widening Again in 2026
    Jun 27 2026
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between the PCE price index and CPI. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — they explore why the Fed’s preferred gauge is running hotter than CPI, what components are driving the gap, and what it means for monetary policy. They break down the role of healthcare costs, portfolio management services, and the methodological differences that make PCE more volatile. If you’ve been confused by conflicting inflation headlines, this episode gives you the framework to understand which number matters and why. #PCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #CoreCPI #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #EconomicIndicators #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InflationGap #HealthcareCosts #PortfolioManagement #May2026 #MacroData #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    6 mins
  • What the PPI and CPI Spread Tells Us Now

    What the PPI and CPI Spread Tells Us Now
    Jun 27 2026
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing gap between the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and what that divergence signals about corporate margins, inflation pass-through, and the Federal Reserve's next move. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023—they unpack whether producers are absorbing costs or passing them along, and why the PPI-CPI spread matters more than either number alone. Drawing on recent data and the Fed's preferred gauge, they explore what the pipeline from factory to store shelf reveals about the true inflation picture. If you've been wondering why inflation feels sticky despite cooling producer prices, this episode offers a clear framework. #PPI #CPI #Inflation #ProducerPriceIndex #ConsumerPriceIndex #CorePCE #FederalReserve #CorporateMargins #PassThrough #InflationPipeline #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #June2026 #LucasAndLuna #EconShow Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    9 mins
  • What the PCE and CPI Spread Reveals About Inflation

    What the PCE and CPI Spread Reveals About Inflation
    Jun 26 2026
    Lucas and Luna drill into the widening gap between the PCE and CPI inflation measures. On June 25, 2026, core PCE hit 3.4 percent—its highest since October 2023—while CPI is running cooler. They explain why the divergence matters for Fed policy, bond markets, and your portfolio, and walk through how consumers and businesses are experiencing inflation differently depending on which index you use. A focused, data-driven look at a technical but consequential economic signal. #PCE #CPI #CoreInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #InflationDivergence #MonetaryPolicy #10YearBreakeven #RealGDP #ConsumerSpending #BusinessInvestment #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #InterestRates #InflationAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    9 mins
  • Why Capacity Utilization Matters More in 2026

    Why Capacity Utilization Matters More in 2026
    Jun 26 2026
    Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — 76.2% in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13% — and explain why this often-overlooked metric is sending a nuanced signal about the economy. They contrast it with industrial production growth, rising job openings, and sticky core inflation to show how capacity constraints might be building beneath a seemingly steady expansion. With factory job cuts near crisis levels and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up, the hosts explore whether the Fed is caught between a tight labor market and persistent price pressures. #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #Inflation #CoreCPI #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #FactoryJobs #LaborMarket #BreakevenInflation #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #EconomicTrends Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    10 mins
  • Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Higher Core Inflation

    Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Higher Core Inflation
    Jun 25 2026
    On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling divergence: core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, its highest since October 2023, yet long-term bond yields have fallen. The hosts walk through the bond math, explaining why the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 basis points this week despite hot inflation data. They connect the dots to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate slipping to 2.18%, the industrial production index at 102.6, and the wider geopolitical backdrop. The conversation drills into whether the bond market is betting on a growth slowdown or simply trusting the Fed's forward guidance. A focused look at how fixed-income markets are pricing a contradictory macro picture in late June 2026. #EconomicIndicators #BondMarket #CoreInflation #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflationRate #IndustrialProduction #MacroData #Economics #InvestmentStrategy #InflationOutlook #FixedIncome #GDPGrowth #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #June2026 #MacroAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
    Show More Show Less
    10 mins