Forecasting Chaos
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Forecasting Chaos
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In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines forecasting, probability, and the challenges of political prediction through the lens of game theory, chaos theory, and mass psychology.
Using the 2028 election as a case study, the episode explores deterministic vs. probabilistic thinking, why simple models often outperform complex ones, the psychology of certainty, and how incentives shape political forecasting and political behavior.
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