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Inside Prediction Markets

Inside Prediction Markets

By: Prediction Market Gurus
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Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Prediction Market Gurus Economics Personal Finance
Episodes
  • Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets
    Jun 24 2026

    Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) trader Andrew Courtney (@andrewcourt1) joins the Optic Odds Hot Seat to discuss what it's really like inside one of the world's most respected trading firms.Andrew spent 15 years at SIG, where he worked in market making, ETF trading, and trading system development before eventually finding his way into prediction markets. Along the way, he learned how professional traders think about risk, adverse selection, liquidity, and building efficient markets.This conversation offers a rare look inside the mindset of a professional trader.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:00:00 - Andrew Courtney's Background02:55 - How SIG Trains Professional Traders08:05 - Learning Market Making at SIG13:50 - Poker, Betting & Trader Culture18:30 - What Market Makers Actually Do25:00 - Why Great Traders Embrace Risk30:20 - Will AI Replace Traders?36:15 - Leaving SIG & Discovering Prediction Markets40:50 - The Biggest Problems in Prediction Markets45:10 - Sharps, Squares & Market Makers#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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    48 mins
  • Optic Odds CEO on Powering the Industry + World Cup Volume Shattering Records
    Jun 17 2026

    Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds, joins Chris and Henry in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Matt traces the full origin story: from a Stanford dorm room startup called OddsJam to the realization that the real value wasn't the consumer product but the data infrastructure powering it. He covers how Optic Odds became the cornerstone of the prediction market tech stack, and his most expensive lesson — not pivoting to prediction markets sooner.Also: World Cup volume is hitting all-time highs across every prediction market platform and every market maker is quietly rooting for ties and upsets. Chris and Henry break down what the numbers actually mean, why the Knicks cost market makers a phone book in the NBA Finals, and whether a Morgan Stanley report claiming Kalshi did 10% of US sports volume is believable.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – World Cup Volume Is Breaking Every Record1:12 – The Knicks Cost Market Makers a Phone Book2:50 – Did Kalshi Really Do 10% of US Sports Volume?4:07 – Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds6:00 – Data Infrastructure Becoming the Product16:00 – How PMs Changed Optic Odds20:00 – Could Optic Odds Trade Its Own Data?26:31 – Matt's Road to Success30:32 – Optic Odds' Most Expensive Lesson#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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    32 mins
  • This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win
    Jun 3 2026

    A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index.


    Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024.


    📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

    👇 Subscribe now.

    @insidepredictionmarkets


    OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.


    Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform


    This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.


    0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks

    2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong

    4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index

    7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH

    9:52 – How Josh Built His Team

    12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment?

    16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making

    23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him

    28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building

    33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet

    41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake


    #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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    50 mins
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