Here's the problem for markets today as we see it: A Ceasefire Does Not End the Crisis. The market is currently pricing in optimism around a potential 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Brent retreated from a peak of approximately $126/barrel to roughly $92/barrel by late May 2026 as ceasefire dialogue advanced. This is a significant repricing — but it reflects a misunderstanding of the physical reality. Even in a scenario where Hormuz flows gradually resume in Q3 2026, as the IEA's base case assumes, global oil supply is still projected to be in deficit until the final quarter of 2026. Infrastructure damage to Gulf terminals, pipeline facilities, and refinery feedstock systems means full recovery timelines could extend six months or more beyond any ceasefire. And critically: rebuilding a 500-900 million barrel inventory deficit requires a sustained surplus of approximately +1 million barrels per day over three consecutive years. That surplus does not exist today and will not materialize immediately. We aren't even sure the UAE stepping in aggressively would solve the issues over the next 12 months.

Heico stock has lagged, a very rare thing. That was the opportunity. Here's a quick summary of the wow quarter and the guidance. The business is on solid footing and the stock is wildly under-owned. There's alot more to like than just crowded AI stocks. HEI is one. This is NOT financial advice, this is for educational and informational purposes only. Please do your own research.

The powerful forward story is the pipeline built to answer the only real bear concern—concentration. The first answer is Foundayo, the newly approved oral GLP-1 pill, the only one dosable anytime without food or water. A pill is a step-change in scalability: no cold chain, no injection, far cheaper to manufacture, and the key to unlocking hundreds of millions of patients globally and in primary care—early uptake shows ~80% of scripts going to new-to-class patients. The second is retatrutide, a triple hormone agonist that delivered ~28% weight loss over 18 months in Phase 3, approaching surgical outcomes. Behind them sits a 42-program Phase 3 engine, spanning expanding indications (sleep apnea, heart failure, MASH-a dangerous form of fatty liver disease where fat builds up in the liver and eventually causes inflammation and liver damage.) And then theres, Alzheimer’s, oncology, and immunology. There's So much in Lilly's pipeline to like.