Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base

15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium

20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow

23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles

26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage

32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks

34:29 Miner Capitulation

37:12 Why Four Years?

40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:01 Pain, Patience, & Cycles
5:03 Shallower Drawdowns?
7:22 ETF Flows and Demand
9:34 Saylor’s Canary
15:32 Realized Losses Review
23:00 Bitcoin Versus Nasdaq
25:23 AI Bubble Meets Crypto
28:37 Oil, War, & Inflation
33:25 Hyperliquid’s Market Split
38:28 $LIT & $WLD Momentum
40:42 Pro Portfolio Playbook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited
5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals
11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind
18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin?
22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion
25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq
26:33 AI Boom Or Bust
35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation
43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy
48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is testing a critical zone, but this bear market is starting to look different. Mike and David break down why $60K may be the next major level, how Strategy’s first BTC sale and STRC stress could shake market confidence, why ETF outflows are piling up, and why assets like Zcash, HYPE, Lighter, and NEAR are breaking out while Bitcoin weakens.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:22 Crypto Cycle Turning

4:42 Bitcoin Near Key Support

9:16 STRC Signals Stress

20:42 ETF Outflows Mount

23:58 Robinhood & Portfolio Bets

28:49 DeFi Builders Gain Ground

31:54 Bullish on Crypto Alpha

35:24 Meme Coins Still Stick

35:46 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is stuck in a quiet range, but the signals are getting louder. Mike and Ryan break down why the mini altcoin rally may be a head fake, what realized losses suggest about Bitcoin’s unfinished pain, why ETF outflows and Saylor’s bond move matter, and the macro risks that could force another leg lower.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:46 Altcoin Hype or Head Fake?
13:06 Measuring Bitcoin Bear Market Pain
22:50 ETF Outflows & Whale Selling
29:25 Iran, Inflation, & Macro Risks
37:35 Bitcoin Levels and Summer Positioning
42:55 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, but the confirmation signal still hasn’t fired. Mike and Ryan break down the bull case for a $60K bottom, why realized cap and supply in profit matter, what top-buyer cohorts are still signaling, and how inflation, rising yields, and a potential Fed hike could force one more drop.

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The Watch List: Zcash (ZEC)

https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-zcash-zec

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

4:16 Realized Cap Signals

12:17 Supply Profit Check

14:11 RSI & Cycle Lows

18:01 Coins Still Need Rotation

20:51 Inflation & Yields

31:00 Key Levels & Scenarios

34:17 Altcoin Rotation Watch

36:52 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:45 Bear Market Symmetry

6:00 Comparing Past Cycles

14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K?

19:23 Weak Market Conditions

23:10 Momentum Starts Fading

27:37 June’s Historical Weakness

29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels

32:40 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling, and the setup that could trap both bulls and bears.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

3:03 Market Dynamics and Institutional Influence

5:53 Trader Sentiment & Market Positioning

10:04 Spot Market Analysis

15:10 ETF Flows & Institutional Demand

19:06 Market Structure & Cycle Analysis

21:09 Bitcoin's Correlation & NASDAQ

26:05 Critical Price Zones for Bitcoin

30:12 Mike's Investment Strategy & Market Outlook

33:17 The Marshmallow Test

34:17 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.