Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z

David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google’s first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon’s exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index performance supports rotation over correction, and questions whether stock and bond markets are truly pricing Fed rate hikes despite high futures-implied odds; the 10-year ended flat at 4.37%. He reviews Iran-US ceasefire uncertainty and Supreme Court activity, including sending the Lisa Cook firing dispute to lower court for due process while upholding an FTC firing. He flags bipartisan interest in taxing/data-center limits, discusses a likely housing bill with limited impact versus state/local barriers, cites rising supply-chain cost indicators, weak new-home sales and falling prices, notes Fed balance-sheet growth, oil at $70.50, and upcoming JOLTS and jobs data (Thursday).

00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead

02:12 Market Recap and Rotation

04:17 Fed Hike Debate

07:04 Geopolitics and Supreme Court

10:03 Data Centers and Housing Bill

12:59 Economy Housing and Fed Sheet

15:14 Energy and Jobs Week

16:05 Wrap Up and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4v7DfvO

From Grand Rapids, David Bahnsen reflects on a speech and borrows Abraham Lincoln’s “last best hope” language to argue that markets—properly understood as broad venues of human exchange, entrepreneurship, and capital formation, not merely the stock market—are inherently forward-looking declarations of optimism. He contrasts market incentives with media and political incentives that often reward negativity, and contends that entrepreneurs and investors with “skin in the game” demonstrate belief in a better tomorrow by turning ideas into solutions that meet human needs. Bahnsen urges defenders of free enterprise to resist dehumanizing markets into charts, ratios, and GDP-only talk, emphasizing the human realities of risk-taking, labor, innovation, and profitably providing goods and services. He previews a mid-year 2026 report for next week ahead of the Fourth of July and the nation’s 250th anniversary.

00:00 Welcome From Grand Rapids

00:36 Lincoln Last Best Hope

03:10 Markets As Hope

03:51 Not Just The Stock Market

05:18 Entrepreneurial Incentives

09:16 Risk And Future Focus

10:11 Humanizing Economics

14:23 Capital Tools And Portfolios

17:32 Closing And Next Week Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse.

00:00 Market Snapshot

01:03 Economic Data Rundown

02:36 Value Rotation Drivers

02:45 Dividend Growth Power

04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit

05:11 Run on Bank Explained

06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com