Episodes

  • Why the Fed Can't Ignore the Strait of Hormuz Anymore

    Why the Fed Can't Ignore the Strait of Hormuz Anymore
    Jun 30 2026
    Lucas and Luna dig into how the fragile shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz is complicating the Fed's inflation outlook. With core PCE at 3.4 percent and breakeven inflation rising to 2.22 percent, the hosts examine why energy supply risks — not just demand-side data — are forcing the FOMC to recalibrate its forecasts. They walk through the mechanics of how a sustained disruption in the Strait could push headline inflation above the Fed's comfort zone, and why the central bank has limited tools to respond to a supply-driven price shock. The conversation touches on the UN's paused evacuation plan, the U.S.-Iran deal's fragile confidence, and what all this means for the rate path through the second half of 2026. #FederalReserve #FOMC #StraitOfHormuz #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #OilPrices #SupplyShock #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #EnergyRisk #Geopolitics #CentralBanking #Economics #InterestRates #FedPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FexingoEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • How the Fed Reads Core PCE at 3.4 Percent

    How the Fed Reads Core PCE at 3.4 Percent
    Jun 29 2026
    On June 25, 2026, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge hit 3.4% year-over-year, matching the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down what that number actually tells us: the composition of core PCE, why services inflation is stubborn, and how the Fed is interpreting this data ahead of its July meeting. They explore the gap between headline and core, the role of housing and healthcare services, and whether the Fed’s framework can handle an inflation reading that keeps drifting above target. Plus a look at how the ten-year breakeven rate, now at 2.2%, signals market skepticism about a return to 2%. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CorePCE #PCE #InterestRates #FOMC #Economics #USEconomy #ServicesInflation #Housing #Healthcare #BreakevenRate #FedForecast #May2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomyExplained Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 mins
  • What the Fed Makes of Core PCE at 3.4 Percent

    What the Fed Makes of Core PCE at 3.4 Percent
    Jun 29 2026
    Core PCE hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down why this number matters more than CPI, what it tells us about sticky services inflation, and how the Fed is likely to respond. They dig into the components—housing, healthcare, financial services—and what the data says about the Fed's credibility on its 2% target. No hot takes, just a clear-eyed look at the Fed's preferred gauge and what it means for rates. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #FOMC #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #InflationData #ServicesInflation #FedPolicy #PCE #EconomicIndicators #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #RateCuts #StickyInflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • Why the Fed Is Stuck Between PCE and the Strait of Hormuz

    Why the Fed Is Stuck Between PCE and the Strait of Hormuz
    Jun 28 2026
    Episode 80 of The Federal Reserve Podcast examines a dilemma the FOMC hasn't publicly squared: the May core PCE reading hit 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023, just as the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel shows fragile signs of reopening after a U.S.-Iran deal. Lucas and Luna walk through why a supply-side shock from energy routes could make the Fed's inflation forecasts even harder to trust — and why the dot plot may be less useful than the narrative around it. They discuss the ten-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.20 percent, what that signals about market belief in the Fed's credibility, and whether the central bank can fine-tune when geopolitics keeps throwing curveballs. No hot takes, just two journalists connecting the dots between a shipping lane and a policy statement. #Fed #MonetaryPolicy #PCE #Inflation #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyPrices #GeopoliticalRisk #FOMC #SupplyShock #CoreInflation #BreakevenInflation #TenYearTreasury #FedCredibility #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • What the Feds Preferred Inflation Gauge Misses About Services

    What the Feds Preferred Inflation Gauge Misses About Services
    Jun 28 2026
    Episode 79 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo breaks down the May 2026 core PCE reading of 3.4% — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed's preferred inflation gauge continues to understate services inflation, focusing on the narrow basket of imputed prices and lagging rent adjustments. They discuss how owner's equivalent rent and medical services skew the metric, and what that means for the FOMC's rate path. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate falling to 2.20%, the hosts ask whether markets are misreading the persistence of services inflation. A concrete look at one number and the structural gap in how the Fed measures prices. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #ServicesInflation #OErent #OwnerEquivalentRent #PriceIndex #CPI #FedFundsRate #BreakevenInflation #May2026 #EconomicData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins
  • How Energy Prices Are Reshaping the Feds Inflation Forecast

    How Energy Prices Are Reshaping the Feds Inflation Forecast
    Jun 27 2026
    Episode 78 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. As of June 27, 2026, the Fed faces a new complication: energy prices are climbing again, just as core PCE hits 3.4 percent—the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down the May core PCE print, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.20 percent, and what the Strait of Hormuz tensions mean for the Fed's path forward. They discuss how the FOMC is interpreting this data, whether the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is losing its predictive edge, and the risk of an energy-driven stagflation scare. This episode drills into the specific channel through which oil and shipping costs are feeding into core goods and services, and why the Fed may have to hold rates higher for longer even if the economy cools. No hot takes—just a focused look at the numbers and the decisions ahead. #FederalReserve #FOMC #Inflation #CorePCE #EnergyPrices #StraitOfHormuz #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CPI #BreakevenRate #Stagflation #Economics #Macro #CentralBanking #RateHike #FedForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • Core PCE at 3.4 Percent What the Feds New Inflation Signal Means

    Core PCE at 3.4 Percent What the Feds New Inflation Signal Means
    Jun 27 2026
    Core PCE inflation hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, just as the Fed signals rate cuts later this year. Lucas and Luna unpack the May Core PCE number, what it means for the Fed's credibility on inflation forecasting, and why the FOMC might still cut rates despite sticky inflation. They explore the Fed's own admission that its models have trouble predicting inflation, and whether the 3.4% reading changes the path for rate cuts in 2026. Drawing on the latest dot plot and Fed commentary, they discuss how the committee balances upside inflation surprises with downside growth risks, and what it means for markets. No jargon, just clear analysis. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #RateCuts #FOMC #InflationForecasting #Economics #Macro #FedCredibility #StickyInflation #PCE #2026Outlook #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • How the Fed Reads Inflation Data It Admits It Cant Forecast

    How the Fed Reads Inflation Data It Admits It Cant Forecast
    Jun 26 2026
    On June 25, 2026, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — hit 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. This came just weeks after the FOMC released new quarterly forecasts that projected core PCE ending 2026 at 2.5 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the widening gap between what the Fed predicts and what the data actually shows. They look at the specific components driving sticky inflation: services ex-housing, portfolio management fees, and auto insurance. They also discuss why the Fed keeps missing to the upside, and what that means for the rate path through year-end. Anchored to the May PCE report released on June 25, this episode explores a concrete puzzle: if the Fed's models are wrong, what should they be watching instead? #FederalReserve #CorePCE #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #EconomicForecasting #ServicesInflation #PortfolioManagement #AutoInsurance #RateCuts #FedModels #Economics #DataWatch #Macro #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins