The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

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The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

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Episode 75 of Recession Watch with Fexingo digs into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which hit 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna explore why this 'sticky' core inflation number is flashing a recession signal that markets are underestimating. They break down the interplay between rising hourly earnings (up to $37.50), the yield curve (still positively sloped at 31 basis points), and the Fed's credibility dilemma. Is this a soft landing or a delayed hard landing? Specific data anchors the conversation, including the latest JOLTS job openings surge to 7.6 million and the VIX creeping toward 19. No fluff, just signal. #CoreInflation #FedPolicy #RecessionSignal #InflationWatch #PCEPriceIndex #YieldCurve #EarningsGrowth #JOLTS #VIX #SoftLanding #HardLanding #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #LaborMarket #FOMC #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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