The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

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The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

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On Episode 76 of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna dissect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—core PCE—which hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They explore why this specific measure matters more than CPI for recession forecasting, how it differs from the 2022-2023 inflation spike, and what the current plateau means for the Fed's next move. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.41% and the yield curve barely positive at 31 basis points, the hosts debate whether sticky core inflation is a recession cause or a symptom of deeper economic friction. No hot takes—just a clear-eyed look at the data and what it suggests for the rest of 2026. #CoreInflation #PCE #FederalReserve #RecessionForecasting #Inflation2026 #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicators #RealGDP #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #FOMC #BusinessCycle #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RecessionWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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