Episodes

  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Shipping Costs

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Shipping Costs
    Jun 29 2026
    Lucas and Luna drill into a recession indicator that's rarely discussed: the cost of moving goods across oceans. With the Baltic Dry Index and container freight rates spiking in mid-2026 due to geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and China's export curbs, they explore why rising shipping costs can be a leading signal for economic slowdown. Lucas explains the mechanism: when shipping costs surge, it's often because demand outstrips supply or because supply chains are breaking—both of which eventually squeeze margins and consumer spending. They reference the latest real GDP growth of 2.1% and the 3.4% core inflation reading from the Fed's preferred gauge to ground the discussion in today's numbers. The episode closes with a thoughtful question on whether global trade friction is becoming the new normal. #RecessionSignal #ShippingCosts #BalticDryIndex #ContainerFreight #SupplyChain #Inflation #CoreInflation #Fed #GeopoliticalRisk #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaExportCurbs #GlobalTrade #TradeFriction #EconomicIndicators #FreightRates #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Rent-to-Income Ratios

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Rent-to-Income Ratios
    Jun 28 2026
    This episode of Recession Watch examines a rarely-discussed but increasingly telling recession indicator: the ratio of rent to income for American households. With core inflation at 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — and the S&P 500 down 1.6% over the past week, Lucas and Luna dig into why rent burdens are reaching critical levels. They discuss how rent-to-income ratios above 30% historically precede downturns, why current data shows the highest level since 2019, and how this connects to consumer spending, savings depletion, and the Fed's dilemma. Specific data points include the 2.6% year-over-year increase in average rent versus the 0.4% rise in hourly earnings, and the growing share of households spending over 40% of income on housing. The hosts also explore why this metric is lagging in official recession models but is flashing early warning signs for the real economy. #RentToIncome #HousingCosts #RecessionIndicator #CoreInflation #RentBurden #ConsumerSpending #FederalReserve #EconomicWarning #HousingMarket #CostOfLiving #RentCrisis #HouseholdFinance #LaborMarket #Inflation2026 #S&P500 #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation
    Jun 28 2026
    Core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into what this means for the recession debate. They break down why services inflation is sticky, how the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and what history says about inflation at this level before a downturn. With the 10-year yield at 4.40% and the yield curve still barely positive, this episode connects the dots between price pressures, monetary policy, and the odds of a recession. Plus, a look at what the housing market and wage growth are telling us about the path ahead. #CoreInflation #Inflation #FederalReserve #Recession #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #YieldCurve #ServicesInflation #WageGrowth #HousingMarket #Fed #PriceStability #EconomicIndicators #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation
    Jun 27 2026
    In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising rise in core inflation to 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They explore how sticky services inflation and supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping price pressures alive, even as the economy shows mixed signals. With the Fed's preferred gauge climbing, they discuss what this means for rate cuts and recession risk, and why ignoring inflation could be dangerous. #CoreInflation #PCE #FederalReserve #StraitOfHormuz #SupplyChain #ServicesInflation #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #RateCuts #FedPolicy #May2026 #PricePressures #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #RecessionRisk Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Insurance Premiums

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Insurance Premiums
    Jun 27 2026
    As core inflation hits 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, a quieter cost driver is pressuring households and businesses: insurance premiums. Lucas and Luna examine how property and auto insurance costs are surging due to climate risks and reinsurance repricing, acting as a hidden drag on consumer spending. With the S&P 500 at 7,354 and the VIX at 18.41, markets are calm—but insurance data may be flashing warning signs. The hosts also discuss why this signal is often overlooked by traditional recession indicators and what it means for the Fed's inflation fight. #InsurancePremiums #CoreInflation #RecessionSignal #Economics #ConsumerSpending #ClimateRisk #Reinsurance #PropertyInsurance #AutoInsurance #FedPolicy #Inflation #VIX #SP500 #YieldCurve #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #RecessionWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation
    Jun 26 2026
    On Episode 76 of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna dissect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—core PCE—which hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They explore why this specific measure matters more than CPI for recession forecasting, how it differs from the 2022-2023 inflation spike, and what the current plateau means for the Fed's next move. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.41% and the yield curve barely positive at 31 basis points, the hosts debate whether sticky core inflation is a recession cause or a symptom of deeper economic friction. No hot takes—just a clear-eyed look at the data and what it suggests for the rest of 2026. #CoreInflation #PCE #FederalReserve #RecessionForecasting #Inflation2026 #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicators #RealGDP #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #FOMC #BusinessCycle #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RecessionWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation
    Jun 26 2026
    Episode 75 of Recession Watch with Fexingo digs into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which hit 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna explore why this 'sticky' core inflation number is flashing a recession signal that markets are underestimating. They break down the interplay between rising hourly earnings (up to $37.50), the yield curve (still positively sloped at 31 basis points), and the Fed's credibility dilemma. Is this a soft landing or a delayed hard landing? Specific data anchors the conversation, including the latest JOLTS job openings surge to 7.6 million and the VIX creeping toward 19. No fluff, just signal. #CoreInflation #FedPolicy #RecessionSignal #InflationWatch #PCEPriceIndex #YieldCurve #EarningsGrowth #JOLTS #VIX #SoftLanding #HardLanding #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #LaborMarket #FOMC #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 mins
  • The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Rising Core Inflation
    Jun 25 2026
    In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine the latest core inflation data — which hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path, the likelihood of a recession, and why this signal might be different from previous inflation scares. The hosts also explore how factory job cuts and geopolitical risks are complicating the economic outlook. Tune in for a data-driven analysis of the current economic landscape. #RecessionWatch #Economics #Inflation #CoreInflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicIndicators #FactoryJobCuts #GeopoliticalRisk #FedPolicy #InflationData #May2026 #LaborMarket #SupplyChain #MonetaryPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicCycles Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins